Operators have halted about 1.28 million BPD of Gulf of Mexico oil production, or 62.89% of regional output, and 57.35% of natural gas production, the Marine Minerals Administration estimated Thursday. Shell and Chevron have shut production at Gulf facilities, while BP halted output and evacuated all personnel at Na Kika and Thunder Horse.
Oil analyst Tom Kloza estimated Friday that Isaias could interrupt five million barrels of crude production over 48 to 72 hours at its worst, calling that loss “Not a big deal.” Refining remains a separate risk: nearly 500,000 BPD of capacity lies in the projected path despite an eastward shift that reduced the threat to Louisiana plants. Kloza previously warned that refining losses could prove “just intolerable,” particularly for diesel.