• 

  40%

  0.0%

  Document-First Inquiry

  House Oversight Democrats use their new subpoena power methodically, prioritizing bank records, contracts, internal communications, and compliance demands before high-profile testimony. The committee focuses on foreign-government spending at Trump properties, crypto-linked transactions, and Kushner-related Gulf money flows.

  Finance −0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.1%

  Family Testimony Escalation

  Oversight Democrats choose a more confrontational path by demanding testimony or records from Trump family members and their business vehicles. This would increase legal and political risk, but the direct market impact would still be limited unless it triggers enforcement referrals or a broader constitutional clash.

  Finance −0.1%

• 

  20%

  0.0%

  Court-Led Delay

  Trump family lawyers challenge subpoenas on privilege, separation-of-powers, privacy, or overbreadth grounds. Litigation slows the inquiry and reduces the chance of near-term revelations, supporting a modest relief trade in Trump-linked public assets.

• 

  10%

  0.0%

  Reform-Oriented Outcome

  Rather than relying mainly on televised confrontation, Democrats package the investigation into ethics, emoluments, and disclosure legislation. This path is less explosive but could still impose compliance costs and keep Trump family business dealings in the news.

  Finance −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.