• 

  35%

  −1.3%

  Deleveraging Extends

  Forced selling in crypto and equities continues as margin calls, ETF outflows and volatility-targeting funds reduce exposure after the post-midterm shock. The move remains a risk-asset liquidation rather than a systemic funding crisis, but pressure stays concentrated in crypto, AI-linked technology and speculative growth shares.

  Technology −2.0% · Finance −0.8% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7%

• 

  25%

  +1.2%

  Relief Rally Forms

  Risk assets rebound as officials and market participants frame the selloff as disorderly but not systemically dangerous. Lower Treasury yields, oversold positioning and short covering create a near-term bounce in crypto and technology shares.

  Technology +1.8% · Finance +1.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%

• 

  20%

  −1.4%

  Rates Reprice Risk

  The market refocuses on the inflation backdrop that pushed yields above 5.3% in October and the Fed’s September rate hike. If investors conclude that the Fed cannot cushion markets quickly, high-duration equities and crypto remain vulnerable.

  Technology −1.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.4% · Finance −0.8%

• 

  20%

  −0.6%

  Washington Overhang Deepens

  The market increasingly interprets the Democratic sweep as a near-term policy risk for crypto platforms, buybacks, corporate taxes and high-margin technology firms. The selloff becomes more policy-specific rather than purely liquidity-driven.

  Technology −0.8% · Finance −0.8% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.