GOP Narrow Hold

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The MAGA losses are embarrassing but not enough to cost Republicans the chamber. Markets treat a continued GOP House as more favorable for tax, energy, and deregulatory priorities, though a tiny majority remains vulnerable to leadership turmoil.

What it moves

Finance+0.3%
Energy+0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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