Democratic Wave

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The defeats of Perry, Miller, and Kiley prove to be early signs of a larger anti-MAGA wave. Democrats win enough seats to run aggressive oversight of the Trump administration, while markets price more investigations, more fiscal conflict, and lower odds of one-party GOP legislation.

What it moves

Energy−0.6%
Finance−0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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