Trade Drag Deepens

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The GDP stall may prove to be an early signal that the U.S. trade dispute is filtering into Canadian exports, manufacturing, and business investment. This path would raise recession-risk pricing, especially if auto, metals, lumber, or machinery shipments weaken into the fourth quarter.

What it moves

Industrials−0.5%
Energy−0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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