Possible scenario

US Legal Friction

12%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump’s refusal to intervene reduces the odds of a bilateral confrontation, but Flávio’s presence in Miami creates visa, asylum and extradition questions. The dispute remains mostly legal, though some US and Brazilian politicians try to turn it into a diplomatic fight.

What it moves

Finance−0.2%
Non-Energy Materials−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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