Possible scenario

Right-Wing Realignment

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Bolsonaro’s camp shifts from contesting the result to preserving influence in Congress, state governments and the 2030 presidential race. The right remains powerful, but the immediate institutional challenge to Lula’s mandate fades.

What it moves

Finance+0.2%
Utilities+0.1%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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