Possible scenario

Institutional Closure Holds

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazilian institutions treat Flávio Bolsonaro’s flight and withdrawal of his claim as the practical end of the post-election challenge. The Superior Electoral Court, Supreme Federal Court and Congress move to certify Lula’s victory while keeping criminal and asset-freeze proceedings alive against Bolsonaro allies.

What it moves

Finance+0.3%
Non-Energy Materials+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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