Possible scenario

Contained Street Unrest

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Hardline Bolsonaro supporters reject Flávio’s retreat and stage localized protests, roadblocks or demonstrations near military facilities. Security forces contain the unrest, but the headlines briefly revive concerns about governability and logistics disruption.

What it moves

Finance−0.5%
Non-Energy Materials−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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