Possible scenario

Washington Friction Rises

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The investigation becomes a bilateral issue if Brazilian authorities seek U.S. assistance and JD Vance’s political allies publicly challenge the STF’s legitimacy. The most likely result is diplomatic friction rather than sanctions or a formal rupture.

What it moves

Industrials+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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