Possible scenario
Foreign Funding Evidence
25%
−0.4%
Investigators find enough documentation to allege that parts of the Bolsonaro campaign benefited from foreign-linked financing or coordinated in-kind support. This would raise the risk of candidate penalties, asset freezes, or expanded cooperation requests to U.S. authorities.
What it moves
- Business Services+0.4%
- Finance−0.3%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.