Possible scenario

Probe Advances Gradually

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely outcome is a formal but measured investigation by Brazil’s Supreme Court and electoral authorities. Justice Alexandre de Moraes or another STF rapporteur authorizes document requests, bank-record preservation, and testimony without immediately disqualifying candidates or naming U.S. criminal defendants.

What it moves

Finance−0.2%
Business Services+0.2%
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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