Possible scenario

Probe Loses Momentum

5%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Defense lawyers successfully challenge parts of the STF inquiry or force it into a narrower electoral-court process. This does not end Bolsonaro’s legal problems, but it reduces the immediate threat of sweeping sanctions against the campaign network.

What it moves

Finance+0.3%
Business Services−0.1%
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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