Possible scenario

Bolsonaro Backlash Builds

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Bolsonaro family and allies frame the investigation as judicial overreach and foreign-linked political persecution. This could energize conservative voters, complicate STF enforcement, and increase the chance of street mobilization or congressional countermeasures.

What it moves

Industrials+0.2%
Consumer Services−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
US dollar▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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