Targeted Enforcement Response

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump could channel the issue into a law-enforcement and counterintelligence response rather than a trade-policy reversal. This would satisfy hawkish pressure while avoiding a broad disruption to Nvidia’s China revenue and the administration’s recent export-license decisions.

What it moves

Technology−0.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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