Limited Security Review

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely outcome is that Trump directs agencies to review the reported plot without immediately changing China chip policy. The administration has recently favored allowing Nvidia sales to China, so a narrow security review lets Trump appear responsive while preserving commercial and diplomatic flexibility.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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