• 

  35%−0.3%

  Extradition Fight Begins

  Brazilian authorities are likely to formalize a legal request after Flávio Bolsonaro fled a passport surrender order and entered the United States with White House help. The near-term outcome would be a legal standoff between Brazil’s courts and the Trump administration rather than an immediate handover.

  Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  25%−0.2%

  US Investigations Expand

  The allegation that a White House official arranged a private jet creates a domestic U.S. accountability issue separate from Brazil’s legal case. Congressional committees, inspectors general, and ethics lawyers are likely to scrutinize whether public office was used to help a foreign political ally evade court orders.

• 

  25%−0.4%

  Brazil Hardens Response

  Brazilian institutions may respond forcefully to deter further flight by Bolsonaro allies and to defend the legitimacy of Lula’s runoff victory. The most likely steps are domestic enforcement actions, asset freezes, and diplomatic retaliation rather than immediate economic sanctions.

  Consumer Services −0.2% · Finance −0.2% · Business Services −0.1%

• 

  15%+0.3%

  Negotiated Legal Exit

  A quieter diplomatic channel could produce a face-saving legal arrangement if both governments want to avoid a prolonged bilateral crisis. This would likely involve court supervision, a return under guarantees, or a long asylum-style process rather than immediate extradition.

  Finance +0.2% · Consumer Services +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.