Possible scenario

Extradition Fight Begins

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazilian authorities are likely to formalize a legal request after Flávio Bolsonaro fled a passport surrender order and entered the United States with White House help. The near-term outcome would be a legal standoff between Brazil’s courts and the Trump administration rather than an immediate handover.

What it moves

Consumer Services−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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