Possible scenario

Brazil Hardens Response

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazilian institutions may respond forcefully to deter further flight by Bolsonaro allies and to defend the legitimacy of Lula’s runoff victory. The most likely steps are domestic enforcement actions, asset freezes, and diplomatic retaliation rather than immediate economic sanctions.

What it moves

Consumer Services−0.2%
Finance−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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