• 

  35%0.0%

  Local Fraud Case

  The investigation remains focused on alleged vote buying by local activists and brokers in Bedouin communities rather than Ra’am’s national leadership or Qatar. This is the most likely path because both Ra’am and Qatar have issued denials and early election-finance probes often narrow to local operatives.

• 

  25%0.0%

  Ra’am Entangled Politically

  Investigators find enough connections between detained activists and Ra’am-linked campaign structures to create a political crisis for Mansour Abbas, even without proving Qatar directed the money. Rival blocs use the probe to challenge Ra’am’s legitimacy in coalition talks.

• 

  18%−0.1%

  Qatar Trail Emerges

  Police uncover financial channels that appear to connect foreign-origin funds to vote-buying suspects, keeping Qatar at the center of the story despite Doha’s denial. This would turn a domestic bribery case into a foreign-interference controversy, though still short of a regional crisis.

  Industrials +0.2%

• 

  14%−0.2%

  Probe Broadens Nationally

  The attorney general and police expand the inquiry beyond the Negev to examine campaign finance practices across parties and municipalities. This path would create broader political uncertainty, but it is still mainly an Israeli institutional issue rather than a global macro event.

• 

  8%−0.3%

  Government Formation Breaks

  The vote-buying affair prevents either bloc from relying openly on Ra’am, leaving the Knesset unable to form a stable majority. This is less likely but would matter more because Israel has a recent history of repeat elections and narrow coalition arithmetic.

  Industrials +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.