Implied flows through the strait have dropped to between 8 and 9 million barrels per day from pre-conflict levels of 13 to 14 million bpd, with HFI Research analysts forecasting a further decline to 6 to 7 million bpd over the next 10 days. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that while crude flows from the Middle East, excluding Iran, have recovered to 80-90% of pre-war levels, refined products remain at only 25-30%. Despite 24 ships being hit in the past two weeks, physical market traders currently view the disruptions as transitory.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Iran Shifts Attack Tactics to Raise Oil Prices Ahead of US Vote
Commodities7 days ago
Tehran is deploying a new strategy of faster, expanded shipping attacks to manipulate global oil prices and influence the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, according to senior officials cited by Reuters. The revised approach involves targeting vessels beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with officials reporting a sharp increase in successful strikes this week aimed at keeping market costs elevated.
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