Possible scenario
Calibrated Oil Pressure
45% Chance
Iran continues changing its attack pattern around the Strait of Hormuz without triggering a full US-Iran military exchange. The goal remains to lift oil prices and US gasoline costs before the midterms while keeping Tehran below the threshold for overwhelming retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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