Possible scenario
Escort Mission Stabilizes
25% Chance
Washington and regional partners expand naval escorts, electronic surveillance, and air-defense coverage around key shipping lanes. The added protection reduces immediate supply fears, though markets remain sensitive to any Iranian response.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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