Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
15% Chance
Regional intermediaries including Oman and Qatar press Washington and Tehran to prevent a wider Gulf conflict. A pause or partial understanding would quickly remove some of the oil risk premium built into crude, tanker rates, and inflation expectations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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