Possible scenario

Soft Political Cap

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The administration pursues a nonbinding or indirect mechanism rather than a strict legal ceiling. This keeps pressure on the central bank and may affect expectations, but it avoids an immediate rupture with the inflation-targeting framework.

What it moves

Finance−0.2%
Non-Energy Materials−0.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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