Possible scenario
Hard Cap Campaign
22%
−1.3%
Lula endorses a more confrontational approach, and allies move toward a formal cap or legal constraint on the policy rate. This would raise doubts about monetary-policy independence and likely trigger a sharper Brazil risk-off move.
What it moves
- Finance−1.3%
- Non-Energy Materials−0.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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