Possible scenario

Plan Quietly Shelved

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Lula’s team uses the review to signal dissatisfaction with high rates but does not advance a binding cap. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and the Banco Central do Brasil reassure markets that Copom decisions remain formally independent.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials+0.3%
Finance+0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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