Possible scenario

Orthodox Fiscal Pivot

13%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The rate-cap review becomes leverage for a broader fiscal package rather than a direct intervention in monetary policy. If Haddad secures credible spending measures, markets could see the episode as a catalyst for a cleaner path toward eventual Selic cuts.

What it moves

Finance+0.6%
Non-Energy Materials+0.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?