• 

  38%0.0%

  Democratic Turnout Wave

  High early voting in Texas border counties proves to be an early signal of Hispanic voter backlash against Trump-aligned Republicans. Democrats regain ground in South Texas and convert elevated national turnout into a broader midterm overperformance.

  Energy −0.7% · Finance −0.4% · Healthcare −0.3%

• 

  30%+0.3%

  Split-Control Baseline

  The Texas border surge reflects genuine Democratic recovery but not a uniform national wave. Control of Washington remains divided or only narrowly changed, producing limited market reaction beyond small adjustments to fiscal and regulatory expectations.

  Finance +0.2% · Technology +0.2% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  20%0.0%

  Republican Late Counter

  The early vote proves less Democratic than expected, either because Republican voters also banked ballots earlier or because Election Day turnout offsets border-county gains. Republicans retain enough Latino support in South Texas to avoid a major realignment.

  Energy +0.6% · Finance +0.5% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  12%−0.6%

  Disputed Vote Counts

  High early turnout creates administrative pressure and close margins in multiple competitive races. Legal challenges or delayed tabulation do not imply systemic failure, but they prolong uncertainty over House control and keep political-risk hedges elevated.

  Finance −0.9% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7% · Technology −0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.