Republican Late Counter

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The early vote proves less Democratic than expected, either because Republican voters also banked ballots earlier or because Election Day turnout offsets border-county gains. Republicans retain enough Latino support in South Texas to avoid a major realignment.

What it moves

Energy+0.6%
Finance+0.5%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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