Traders on the prediction market Kalshi price a 44% probability that shipping traffic through the strait will normalize before October 2027, with the odds only rising to 53% by January 2028. Azmaei previously claimed the US mobilized all assets to escort only 4 or 5 oil tankers through the region. The threats follow Iranian strikes on three vessels in the waterway and statements from Tehran that the blockade is a lawful response to attacks from the US and Israel rather than an attempt to gain diplomatic leverage.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Iran's Navy Threatens to Sink US Warships in Strait of Hormuz
Commodities7 days ago
"The US military’s seven fleets have turned into fuel smugglers," IRGC Navy Commander Ali Azmaei said Tuesday, claiming Washington has retreated from the Persian Gulf because its ships are vulnerable. Azmaei added that Iranian forces are counting the moments until US warships enter the Strait of Hormuz so they can be sunk, challenging Washington to send its forces to see who controls the waterway. He asserted that the IRGC Navy controls both the strait and the Persian Gulf, while the regular Iranian navy manages the Sea of Oman.
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