Possible scenario
Limited Naval Clash
28% Chance
A localized clash occurs after Iranian units challenge U.S. vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Both governments seek to control escalation, but even a contained exchange would lift crude prices, volatility, and defense-related equities over the next one to two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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