Possible scenario
Mediated Naval De-escalation
18% Chance
Regional mediators press Tehran and Washington to restore deconfliction channels before a naval accident occurs. This outcome is plausible because both sides have already engaged in Hormuz-related talks and neither benefits from an uncontrolled closure of the Strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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