Threats Stay Contained

Iran uses the Navy threat as coercive signaling rather than initiating a major attack. Given the repeated cycle of threats, missile fire, sanctions, and talks, the most likely near-term outcome is a tense standoff with U.S. escorts and Iranian harassment but no deliberate sinking attempt.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.