Republicans Hold Narrowly

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans survive the adverse forecast moves by winning enough Trump-aligned rural seats and holding a few expensive suburban defenses. This would be an upside surprise relative to the late polling and ratings trajectory.

What it moves

Energy+0.7%
Finance+0.6%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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