Control Remains Undecided

8%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A small number of very close races prevent either party from immediately claiming a majority. This is less likely than a clear Democratic win but plausible because the forecast shifts involve many competitive districts with narrow margins.

What it moves

Finance−0.7%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.5%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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