Democratic Wave Expands

24%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The late forecast changes understate Democratic momentum, and turnout in suburbs, college towns, and abortion-rights-focused races produces a larger-than-expected gain. This would be interpreted as a stronger rebuke of Republican House leadership under Mike Johnson.

What it moves

Energy−1.0%
Finance−0.7%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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