Democrats Take Narrow House

46%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely outcome is that the Fox News shift confirms a late-cycle consensus also reflected by Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Democrats capture a small House majority, giving Hakeem Jeffries a plausible path to the speakership while leaving the chamber difficult to govern.

What it moves

Energy−0.5%
Finance−0.3%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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