• 

  45%0.0%

  GOP Holds Senate

  Sanders’ $2.3 million late-cycle spending helps Democratic turnout in selected races but does not overcome the GOP’s 53-47 starting advantage. Republicans retain control by holding enough battleground seats and limiting Democratic gains to one or two net pickups.

  Energy +0.3% · Finance +0.2% · Healthcare +0.1%

• 

  25%−0.1%

  Democrats Take Senate

  A favorable national environment and strong late spending allow Democrats to flip enough seats to overcome the GOP majority. Sanders’ role is viewed as one part of a broader turnout operation, especially among younger, union, and lower-propensity voters.

  Healthcare −0.4% · Utilities +0.3% · Energy −0.3%

• 

  18%0.0%

  Progressives Gain Leverage

  Even without guaranteeing chamber control, Sanders’ spending strengthens the left wing inside the Democratic coalition. Candidates aligned with labor, Medicare expansion, and climate policy gain visibility and bargaining power in 2027 caucus debates.

  Healthcare −0.3% · Utilities +0.1% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  12%0.0%

  GOP Backlash Works

  Republicans turn Sanders’ high-profile spending into an ideological attack line, especially in states where Democrats need crossover voters. The spending still helps Democratic turnout, but the GOP uses it to nationalize local races around socialism, taxes, and energy policy.

  Energy +0.2% · Finance +0.1% · Healthcare +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.