FBI Case Holds

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that the FBI, ODNI, Treasury, and allied cyber agencies maintain the North Korea attribution despite Trump’s public skepticism. TRM Labs’ earlier finding and the FBI’s TraderTraitor attribution give investigators a defensible evidentiary base, while the White House avoids fully overruling its own law-enforcement agencies.

What it moves

Market volatility▼ down
Bitcoin▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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