PA Republicans Trail Democrats by 168,851 Early Mail Votes

Republican mail ballot requests have increased 26% since 2022, with a 7.4 percentage point shift in the party's favor in counties that reported in both election cycles. The Democratic voter registration advantage in the state also narrowed from approximately 550,000 to 221,000. Analysts attribute the current return gap largely to a decrease in 'surge voters' who cast mail ballots in 2024 but abstained during the 2022 midterms.