Possible scenario
Ballot Litigation Returns
18% Chance
Close races lead campaigns and county officials back into disputes over undated, misdated, or cured mail ballots. Pennsylvania's recent history of litigation over ballot dates makes this a realistic risk if margins tighten.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.