Possible scenario
Democrats Bank Cushion
38% Chance
Democrats maintain a substantial advantage in returned Pennsylvania mail ballots through the final stretch of the 2026 campaign. Because Pennsylvania Democrats have historically relied more heavily on mail voting, the lead is meaningful but not automatically decisive without strong Election Day turnout.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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