Possible scenario
GOP Election Day Offset
32% Chance
Republicans fail to catch Democrats in the mail-ballot count but offset much of the deficit through in-person Election Day voting. This outcome is plausible because Republican voters remain more likely to vote in person despite Donald Trump's recent encouragement to use mail ballots.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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