• 

  42%0.0%

  Blockade Entrenches

  The most likely path is a prolonged siege in practice, even as Houthi officials continue to deny that Taiz is cut off. UN OCHA and local health authorities would keep documenting shortages, but neither side makes the political concession needed to reopen the Taiz-Aden route.

• 

  30%0.0%

  Humanitarian Access Deal

  UN and Omani mediation produces a limited humanitarian arrangement without resolving the wider military dispute over Taiz. This is plausible because both the Houthis and the Presidential Leadership Council have incentives to avoid being blamed for a hospital collapse affecting hundreds of thousands of civilians.

• 

  18%−0.1%

  Taiz Fighting Escalates

  The siege triggers a military response by forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, particularly around western and southern approaches to Taiz. The conflict remains mostly local, but a wider Houthi response could briefly lift regional risk premia.

  Energy +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  10%0.0%

  External Pressure Builds

  The UN Security Council, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Gulf intermediaries increase diplomatic pressure over the Taiz blockade. This path is less likely to immediately reopen roads, but it could impose reputational costs on the Houthis and create space for a monitored aid compromise.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.