Humanitarian Access Deal

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

UN and Omani mediation produces a limited humanitarian arrangement without resolving the wider military dispute over Taiz. This is plausible because both the Houthis and the Presidential Leadership Council have incentives to avoid being blamed for a hospital collapse affecting hundreds of thousands of civilians.

What it moves

Market volatility▼ down
Oil prices▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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