Possible scenario
Limited Deal Progress
38%
+0.6%
The White House proposal becomes a narrow incentive package rather than a broad sanctions rollback. Washington offers conditional licenses for Russian energy projects tied to verifiable steps toward a ceasefire, while Kyiv and European capitals retain leverage through sanctions snapback clauses.
What it moves
- Energy+0.9%
- Industrials−0.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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