Possible scenario
Ceasefire Breakthrough
20%
+0.7%
The energy proposal helps create enough incentive for Moscow to accept a monitored ceasefire, while Ukraine receives expanded U.S. security guarantees. This is less likely than a slower diplomatic process, but it would produce the clearest risk-on reaction.
What it moves
- Energy+1.5%
- Industrials−0.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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