• 

  56%

  +0.2%

  Jeffries Wins Cleanly

  Jeffries converts the Democrats’ 228-seat majority into a disciplined speaker vote, with only symbolic dissent or absences. After the September 2026 leadership turbulence, most Democrats decide that a fast transition is worth more than relitigating caucus grievances.

  Business Services +0.2% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  26%

  0.0%

  Concessions Secure Speakership

  Jeffries remains the clear favorite but needs a negotiated package to bring skeptics back into line. The caucus extracts commitments on committee assignments, floor procedure, and the first legislative agenda before backing him.

  Healthcare −0.1% · Technology −0.1% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  13%

  −0.4%

  Deadlock Then Jeffries

  The September 2026 defections prove more durable than expected, forcing several speaker ballots before Democrats unify. Jeffries ultimately wins because no rival can assemble a broader coalition and Republicans remain behind Mike Johnson.

  Industrials −0.3% · Business Services −0.2% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  5%

  −0.5%

  Jeffries Is Bypassed

  A broader anti-Jeffries bloc forms and concludes that the caucus needs a different nominee to avoid a prolonged floor stalemate. This is unlikely because Jeffries has institutional support, but the earlier leadership challenge makes it a plausible tail outcome.

  Industrials −0.3% · Finance −0.2% · Business Services −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.